Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Banks are still not safe


The banks seemed stable after the aid of the government. But new blows threatening.

The banks seemed inhibited by all governmental action, then why did Citigroup many billions needed?

Citigroup was not the first financial institution for the second time in the U.S. government had to knock. AIG, the largest insurer in the world, the bank two weeks ago already.

The first round of aid operations took place before the recession in the U.S. economy with full force struck. The damage was still mainly caused by the fall of Lehman Brothers on Sept. 15. Since then, the American economy hard to shrink. In the fourth quarter will shrink 5 percent - on an annual basis - amounts, Goldman Sachs estimated Friday. That means that more Americans their mortgage and their credit card debts can no longer pay. Meanwhile, the house-price is still hard down, allowing the banks with greater outstanding remain seated.

Citigroup has a large proportion of its total assets (of 2 trillion dollars) invested in U.S. real estate market and U.S. credit cards. These investments quickly lose their value. Citigroup's equity capital is too small, so the American public now feel compelled again to invest 20 billion dollars. At the same time, Citigroup effort to refinance its debts. For investors able to get the U.S. government now guarantees mortgage loans with a total value of 306 billion dollars.

Has the U.S. government this enough money?
Henry Paulson, the Minister of Finance, has 700 billion dollars set aside for all rescue operations. He had hoped that he would only half format, so the other half to his successor, Timothy Geithner, could pass. That hope is lost. It is not strange to expect that the entire 700 billion dollars have already been through, when Barack Obama takes office on January 20.

That is not a disaster. Obama is probably even more reserve money. The debt is the last thing Obama is worried about having to make. He has only one mission: prevent the U.S. economy collapsing, during which all lawful means. Moreover, it will him little trouble in the short term debt to finance the costs. By the turbulence in the financial markets are looking for everyone a safe harbor. U.S. government bonds are still as - relatively - safe.

Wouter Bos also must soon re-help at ABN Amro / Fortis, ING or any of the other banks?
That can certainly not be ruled out. The Dutch housing market has much more stable than the U.S. and the recession here is also a bit slower start, but it's not said that it continues. Moreover, ING has 47 billion euros in the U.S. housing market are. If the bank-insurer must go write off sharply thereafter, new capital injections seem inevitable.

Banks may also be difficult as existing bonds expire and they should refinance their debts. In that case, the banks, just as car Leaseplan, rely on government guarantee on debt. That should investors still on the pull stroke.

Fortis and ABN Amro have a big advantage. Their debts are already largely financed by the Dutch state. Forest has it in early October a bridging loan of 35 billion euro. It is not clear when that credit is repaid.

No comments: